Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +840 odds [5/28/2026]

Our analysis shows Alonso leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 19.3% chance to go deep, followed by Byron Buxton (17.3%) and Tyler O'Neill (16.5%).

Jake Burger and Vladimir Guerrero are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [5/28/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key variables like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Kyle Higashioka (Rangers) to hit a home run

• Probability: 12.9%
• Odds: +840
• Edge: 2.3%
• Game: Astros vs. Rangers (8:05 PM EDT)
• Pitching matchup: Spencer Arrighetti

Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Texas slugger Kyle Higashioka rates as a value play at +840 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 2.3% edge.

With Spencer Arrighetti on the mound for the Astros, the data supports Higashioka as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For May 28, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Pete Alonso, Byron Buxton and Tyler O'Neill projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kyle Higashioka who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.3% edge at +840 odds.

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