MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Chris Bassitt [5/28/2026]

Chris Bassitt over 1.5 earned runs (-170)

• Edge: 8.2%
• Probability: 71.2%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Our model has found value on Baltimore's Chris Bassitt over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 71.2% gives this play an edge of 8.2% at -170 odds.

Chris Bassitt over 3.5 strikeouts (-161)

• Edge: 8.5%
• Probability: 70.2%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

Chris Bassitt’s strikeouts prop shows a 70.2% probability and an 8.5% edge at -161 odds, according to our model.

Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 strikeouts (-158)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 69.9%
• Game: Astros vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

The data highlights value on Nathan Eovaldi under 6.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 69.9% probability and an 8.6% edge at -158.

Jack Flaherty under 6.5 strikeouts (-139)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 62.8%
• Game: Angels vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Jack Flaherty under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 62.8% probability and an edge of 4.6% at -139 odds.

Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs (-132)

• Edge: 4.9%
• Probability: 61.8%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Chris Sale over 1.5 earned runs for Atlanta, showing an edge of 4.9% at -132 odds.

Chris Sale over 4.5 hits allowed (-139)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 61.0%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

Chris Sale’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 2.9% at -139 odds, supported by a 61.0% probability according to our model.

Payton Tolle under 16.5 outs recorded (-120)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 60.7%
• Game: Braves vs. Red Sox (4:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Payton Tolle under 16.5 outs recorded for Boston, with a 60.7% probability and a 6.2% edge at -120 odds.

Colin Rea over 5.5 hits allowed (-125)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 59.0%
• Game: Cubs vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)

The data shows value on Colin Rea over 5.5 hits allowed, supported by a 59.0% probability at -125 odds and an edge of 3.5%.

Tyler O'Neill to get a hit (-120)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 58.7%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Orioles (6:35PM ET)

A 4.1% edge on the to get a hit line makes Tyler O'Neill a value play in Blue Jays vs. Orioles, supported by a 58.7% probability at -120 odds.

Grayson Rodriguez under 16.5 outs recorded (-108)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 58.5%
• Game: Angels vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Grayson Rodriguez under 16.5 outs recorded here, with a 58.5% probability and 6.6% edge at -108 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, May 28, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 1:01PM ET:

Conclusion

For May 28, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.