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Home run predictions for Wild Card Thursday include Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis [10/2/2025]

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Written by Dave Garofolo

Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB Wild Card slate.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today.
Our home run predictions for October 2, 2025, are based on Thursday's latest data and matchups.

Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, October 2, 2025, are here—with Aaron Judge topping the list according to the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.

Thursday's Wild Card HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.

Home run predictions for October 2, 2025

Player (Team) HR Projection
Aaron Judge (Yankees) 26.0%
Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) 23.6%
Fernando Tatis (Padres) 18.9%
Jazz Chisholm (Yankees) 🔒
Kerry Carpenter (Tigers) 🔒
Ben Rice (Yankees) 🔒
Michael Busch (Cubs) 🔒
Trent Grisham (Yankees) 🔒
Kyle Tucker (Cubs) 🔒
Kyle Manzardo (Guardians) 🔒

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.0% chance to go yard, followed by Giancarlo Stanton (23.6%) and Fernando Tatis (18.9%).

Jazz Chisholm and Kerry Carpenter are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10. Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Join Dimers Pro now.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Aaron Judge 2025.
Aaron Judge features in our home run predictions on Thursday, October 2, 2025.

Wild Card Thursday's home run picks [10/2/2025]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching matchups, Dimers Pro has identified one of the best MLB home run props today.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) to hit a home run

Ranked as one of the top three most likely players in today's home run predictions, New York slugger Jazz Chisholm Jr. offers standout value at +700 with BetMGM, showing an edge of 5.4%—making him one of the strongest home run bets today.

In a matchup against Red Sox starter Connelly Early, Jr. shapes up as one of the best home run picks today on Thursday's slate.

 

For more expert MLB picks and data-backed MLB predictions, join Dimers Pro now. Pro users get full access to a total of 39 home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

MLB Wild Card schedule for today [Thursday, October 2, 2025]

Bet365 bonus code "DIMERS" — perfect for home run betting

To make the most of our dinger picks, headlined by the strong betting edge on Jazz Chisholm Jr., check out the latest Bet365 bonus code of "DIMERS" that secures $200 in bonus bets from a $5 bet – win or lose.

This Referral Code is used for marketing/tracking purposes only. Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limits and exclusions apply..

Conclusion

For October 2, 2025, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Fernando Tatis projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Jazz Chisholm Jr. who stands out as the best value bet, offering an appealing 5.4% edge at +700 odds.

These insights are based on 10,000 game simulations and are designed to help you identify smarter betting opportunities. As always, gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know needs support, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

For more coverage, check out today's MLB player props and MLB best bets. Plus, stay updated with the latest MLB news, MLB betting trends updated every 15 minutes, and World Series odds.

Note: This article may include affiliate links. Learn how we review products and services.

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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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