Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [6/28/2026]
Get New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Boston Red Sox will take on the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Fenway Park on Sunday, beginning at 7:20 PM ET.
The Red Sox will start Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA), while the Yankees are going with Carlos Rodón (4-2, 3.70 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Red Sox a slight edge with a 50.3% win probability over the Yankees.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Red Sox a 50.3% chance of beating the Yankees.
According to our model, the over/under total of eight runs has a 53.5% chance of going over,.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds [6/28/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -104 | -110 |
| Total | o8 (-107) | u8 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Yankees | -104 |
| Total | Over 8 | -107 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Red Sox game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Red Sox and Yankees at Fenway Park is scheduled to start at 7:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
- Date: Sunday, June 28, 2026
- Time: 7:20 PM ET/4:20PM PT
- Venue: Fenway Park
Conclusion
We predict the Red Sox, with a 50.3% win probability, will likely beat the Yankees in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
