MLB player props today: Friday's best props include Connelly Early [5/15/2026]

Connelly Early under 5.5 hits allowed (-151)

• Edge: 8.8%
• Probability: 68.9%
• Game: Red Sox vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Boston's Connelly Early under 5.5 hits allowed. A probability of 68.9% gives this play an edge of 8.8% at -151 odds.

Trey Yesavage under 4.5 hits allowed (-156)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 66.9%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (6:45PM ET)

Trey Yesavage’s hits allowed prop shows a 66.9% probability and an 6.0% edge at -156 odds, according to our model.

Shane Baz under 5.5 strikeouts (-148)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 66.7%
• Game: Orioles vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)

The data highlights value on Shane Baz under 5.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 66.7% probability and a 7.0% edge at -148.

Cam Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts (-172)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 66.3%
• Game: Yankees vs. Mets (7:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Cam Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 66.3% probability and an edge of 3.0% at -172 odds.

Tanner Bibee under 6.5 strikeouts (-146)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 66.0%
• Game: Reds vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Tanner Bibee under 6.5 strikeouts for Cleveland, showing an edge of 6.6% at -146 odds.

Emerson Hancock over 1.5 earned runs (-165)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Game: Padres vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)

Emerson Hancock’s earned runs prop shows an edge of 3.5% at -165 odds, supported by a 65.8% probability according to our model.

Corbin Carroll over 1.5 bases (-132)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 64.1%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Corbin Carroll over 1.5 bases for Arizona, with a 64.1% probability and a 7.3% edge at -132 odds.

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-117)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 63.2%
• Game: Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

The data shows value on Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases, supported by a 63.2% probability at -117 odds and an edge of 9.3%.

Emerson Hancock under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 63.2%
• Game: Padres vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)

A 6.0% edge on the under 1.5 strikeouts line makes Emerson Hancock a value play in Padres vs. Mariners, supported by a 63.2% probability at -134 odds.

Dustin May over 2.5 earned runs (-107)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 61.0%
• Game: Royals vs. Cardinals (8:15PM ET)

Simulations show value on Dustin May over 2.5 earned runs here, with a 61.0% probability and 9.3% edge at -107 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Friday, May 15, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 7:42AM ET:

Conclusion

For May 15, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Connelly Early, Trey Yesavage and Shane Baz. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.