MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Matthew Liberatore [5/7/2026]

Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts (-158)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 65.2%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Padres (10:10PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on St. Louis' Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 65.2% gives this play an edge of 3.9% at -158 odds.

Andrew Painter under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 64.9%
• Game: Athletics vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Andrew Painter’s strikeouts prop shows a 64.9% probability and an 9.3% edge at -125 odds, according to our model.

Slade Cecconi over 3.5 strikeouts (-139)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 63.9%
• Game: Guardians vs. Royals (2:10PM ET)

The data highlights value on Slade Cecconi over 3.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 63.9% probability and a 5.7% edge at -139.

Royce Lewis over 0.5 bases (-152)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 63.3%
• Game: Twins vs. Nationals (1:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Royce Lewis over 0.5 bases, with a 63.3% probability and an edge of 3.1% at -152 odds.

Zac Gallen over 15.5 outs recorded (-104)

• Edge: 9.7%
• Probability: 60.7%
• Game: Pirates vs. D-Backs (3:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Zac Gallen over 15.5 outs recorded for Arizona, showing an edge of 9.7% at -104 odds.

Christian Scott under 4.5 strikeouts (-114)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 59.8%
• Game: Mets vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)

Christian Scott’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 6.6% at -114 odds, supported by a 59.8% probability according to our model.

Simeon Woods Richardson over 3.5 strikeouts (-104)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 59.3%
• Game: Twins vs. Nationals (1:05PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Simeon Woods Richardson over 3.5 strikeouts for Minnesota, with a 59.3% probability and a 8.3% edge at -104 odds.

Juan Soto over 1.5 bases (-120)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 58.5%
• Game: Mets vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)

The data shows value on Juan Soto over 1.5 bases, supported by a 58.5% probability at -120 odds and an edge of 3.8%.

Mark Vientos over 1.5 bases (-111)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 57.7%
• Game: Mets vs. Rockies (3:10PM ET)

A 5.1% edge on the over 1.5 bases line makes Mark Vientos a value play in Mets vs. Rockies, supported by a 57.7% probability at -111 odds.

Zac Gallen over 4.5 strikeouts (-106)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 56.9%
• Game: Pirates vs. D-Backs (3:40PM ET)

Simulations show value on Zac Gallen over 4.5 strikeouts here, with a 56.9% probability and 5.4% edge at -106 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, May 7, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 5:40AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Cardinals vs. Padres	Matthew Liberatore over 3.5 strikeouts	-158 @ FanDuel	3.9%	65.2%
Athletics vs. Phillies	Andrew Painter under 4.5 strikeouts	-125 @ FanDuel	9.3%	64.9%
Guardians vs. Royals	Slade Cecconi over 3.5 strikeouts	-139 @ DraftKings	3.1%	63.3%
Twins vs. Nationals	Royce Lewis over 0.5 bases	-152 @ fanatics	3.1%	63.3%
Pirates vs. D-Backs	Zac Gallen over 15.5 outs recorded	-104 @ DraftKings	9.7%	60.7%
Mets vs. Rockies	Christian Scott under 4.5 strikeouts	-114 @ FanDuel	6.6%	59.8%
Twins vs. Nationals	Simeon Woods Richardson over 3.5 strikeouts	-104 @ FanDuel	8.3%	59.3%
Mets vs. Rockies	Juan Soto over 1.5 bases	-120 @ fanatics	3.8%	58.5%
Mets vs. Rockies	Mark Vientos over 1.5 bases	-111 @ fanatics	5.1%	57.7%
Pirates vs. D-Backs	Zac Gallen over 4.5 strikeouts	-106 @ FanDuel	5.4%	56.9%

Conclusion

For May 7, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Matthew Liberatore, Andrew Painter and Slade Cecconi. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.