MLB player props today: Thursday's best props include Braxton Ashcraft [5/21/2026]

Braxton Ashcraft over 1.5 earned runs (-154)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 67.6%
• Game: Pirates vs. Cardinals (1:15PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft over 1.5 earned runs. A probability of 67.6% gives this play an edge of 7.0% at -154 odds.

Joey Cantillo over 4.5 strikeouts (-147)

• Edge: 7.4%
• Probability: 66.9%
• Game: Guardians vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Joey Cantillo’s strikeouts prop shows a 66.9% probability and an 7.4% edge at -147 odds, according to our model.

Spencer Strider over 1.5 earned runs (-143)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 62.5%
• Game: Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Spencer Strider over 1.5 earned runs, with simulations showing a 62.5% probability and a 3.6% edge at -143.

Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 strikeouts (-141)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 62.2%
• Game: Pirates vs. Cardinals (1:15PM ET)

Our model finds value on Braxton Ashcraft under 5.5 strikeouts, with a 62.2% probability and an edge of 3.7% at -141 odds.

Spencer Strider over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 60.7%
• Game: Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Spencer Strider over 5.5 strikeouts for Atlanta, showing an edge of 5.8% at -122 odds.

Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 hits allowed (-131)

• Edge: 3.6%
• Probability: 60.3%
• Game: Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)

Sandy Alcantara’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 3.6% at -131 odds, supported by a 60.3% probability according to our model.

Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts (-108)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 58.3%
• Game: Guardians vs. Tigers (1:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Casey Mize under 4.5 strikeouts for Detroit, with a 58.3% probability and a 6.4% edge at -108 odds.

MJ Melendez to get a hit (-125)

• Edge: 2.0%
• Probability: 57.6%
• Game: Mets vs. Nationals (4:05PM ET)

The data shows value on MJ Melendez to get a hit, supported by a 57.6% probability at -125 odds and an edge of 2.0%.

Luis Severino over 2.5 earned runs (-115)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 56.6%
• Game: Athletics vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

A 3.1% edge on the over 0.5 earned runs line makes Luis Severino a value play in Athletics vs. Angels, supported by a 56.6% probability at -115 odds.

Sandy Alcantara over 2.5 earned runs (-115)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 56.0%
• Game: Braves vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)

Simulations show value on Sandy Alcantara over 2.5 earned runs here, with a 56.0% probability and 2.5% edge at -115 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Thursday, May 21, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 11:18AM ET:

Conclusion

For May 21, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Braxton Ashcraft, Joey Cantillo and Spencer Strider. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.