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Read Article Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Thursday's MLB matchup [5/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals predictions for MLB Thursday.
The St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Busch Stadium on Thursday, starting at 1:15 PM ET.
Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA) will start for the Cardinals, while the Pirates are going with Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA).
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Pirates-Cardinals matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Pirates vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.
Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Pirates and Cardinals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Pirates and Cardinals a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of seven runs has a 56% chance of going over.
Pirates vs. Cardinals odds [5/21/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pirates | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+146) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Moneyline | -120 | +104 |
| Total | o7 (-110) | u7 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pirates vs. Cardinals picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cardinals +1.5 | -170 |
| Moneyline | Cardinals | +104 |
| Total | Over 7 | -110 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Pirates vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Cardinals and Pirates at Busch Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:15 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Date: Thursday, May 21, 2026
- Time: 1:15 PM ET/10:15AM PT
- Venue: Busch Stadium
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Pirates and Cardinals on Thursday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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