MLB player props today: Tuesday's best props include Jameson Taillon [5/5/2026]

Jameson Taillon under 5.5 strikeouts (-192)

• Edge: 9.0%
• Probability: 74.8%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Our model has found value on CHI Cubs' Jameson Taillon under 5.5 strikeouts. A probability of 74.8% gives this play an edge of 9.0% at -192 odds.

Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 bases (-152)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 65.9%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s bases prop shows a 65.9% probability and an 5.6% edge at -152 odds, according to our model.

Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeouts (-140)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 65.1%
• Game: Brewers vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)

The data highlights value on Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeouts, with simulations showing a 65.1% probability and a 6.7% edge at -140.

Michael Busch to get a hit (-160)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 64.3%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Michael Busch to get a hit, with a 64.3% probability and an edge of 2.7% at -160 odds.

Matt Shaw over 0.5 bases (-147)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 63.9%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Matt Shaw over 0.5 bases for CHI Cubs, showing an edge of 4.4% at -147 odds.

Matt Shaw to get a hit (-142)

• Edge: 5.3%
• Probability: 63.9%
• Game: Reds vs. Cubs (7:40PM ET)

Matt Shaw’s to get a hit prop shows an edge of 5.3% at -142 odds, supported by a 63.9% probability according to our model.

Cristopher Sanchez over 1.5 earned runs (-145)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 63.6%
• Game: Athletics vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Cristopher Sanchez over 1.5 earned runs for Philadelphia, with a 63.6% probability and a 4.4% edge at -145 odds.

Brayan Bello over 3.5 strikeouts (-139)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 62.2%
• Game: Red Sox vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)

The data shows value on Brayan Bello over 3.5 strikeouts, supported by a 62.2% probability at -139 odds and an edge of 4.1%.

Alek Thomas over 0.5 bases (-141)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 61.5%
• Game: Pirates vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)

A 3.0% edge on the over 3.5 bases line makes Alek Thomas a value play in Pirates vs. D-Backs, supported by a 61.5% probability at -141 odds.

Alek Thomas to get a hit (-137)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 61.5%
• Game: Pirates vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)

Simulations show value on Alek Thomas to get a hit here, with a 61.5% probability and 3.7% edge at -137 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Tuesday, May 5, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 5:03AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Reds vs. Cubs	Jameson Taillon under 5.5 strikeouts	-192 @ fanatics	9.0%	74.8%
Reds vs. Cubs	Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 bases	-152 @ fanatics	5.6%	65.9%
Brewers vs. Cardinals	Brandon Sproat under 4.5 strikeouts	-140 @ FanDuel	2.7%	64.3%
Reds vs. Cubs	Michael Busch to get a hit	-160 @ FanDuel	2.7%	64.3%
Reds vs. Cubs	Matt Shaw over 0.5 bases	-147 @ fanatics	4.4%	63.9%
Reds vs. Cubs	Matt Shaw to get a hit	-142 @ DraftKings	5.3%	63.9%
Athletics vs. Phillies	Cristopher Sanchez over 1.5 earned runs	-145 @ DraftKings	4.4%	63.6%
Red Sox vs. Tigers	Brayan Bello over 3.5 strikeouts	-139 @ DraftKings	4.1%	62.2%
Pirates vs. D-Backs	Alek Thomas over 0.5 bases	-141 @ fanatics	3.0%	61.5%
Pirates vs. D-Backs	Alek Thomas to get a hit	-137 @ DraftKings	3.7%	61.5%

Conclusion

For May 5, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Jameson Taillon, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Brandon Sproat. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.