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MLS predictions: Using data to predict scores on opening weekend
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The MLS returns to action this weekend to kick off the 2026 season and we've used the Dimers data to find the most likely correct score results across all matches.
Major League Soccer returns on Saturday, February 21 to kick off the 2026 season and Dimers MLS predictions are ready for the first set of matches, from our best MLS bets to predicted scorelines for every match and the best picks to win the MLS Cup.
All season long, every week, Dimers’ data-driven algorithms simulate every MLS contest thousands of times, processing 1,000s of inputs across expected-goals metrics, rosters, recent form, and player-level data to predict the most likely scorelines over a full match.
These scores can be utilized in a variety of ways, from betting on longshot results to engineering Both Teams to Score probabilities.
Focusing on outright victories rather than draws, three particular scorelines have emerged with the highest probabilities in MLS this weekend, each at 11% in their respective match, and each getting fair odds by the Dimers model.
For the opening weekend slate, these strong correct-score probabilities come from these three Saturday matches:
⚽ Vancouver vs. Salt Lake
⚽ Philadelphia vs. D.C. United
⚽ Montreal vs. San Diego FC
Here is why the data points toward these specific outcomes for the upcoming fixtures.
MLS Opening Weekend score predictions
Vancouver 2-0 vs. Salt Lake (11% probability)
The model’s strongest single outcome in this matchup points toward a comfortable Vancouver home victory, with every other top scoreline also favoring the Whitecaps.
The data case: The algorithm gives Salt Lake just a 14% chance to win and 19% to draw, indicating a low attacking expectation from the visitors and strong defensive control from Vancouver.
Why the algorithm picked it: Vancouver enter the season as legitimate MLS Cup contenders after last year’s finals run and dominant goal differential, and they also won both meetings with Salt Lake in 2025. At home and priced as clear favorites, the Whitecaps project to control possession and chances, while Salt Lake, longshot title hopefuls, look unlikely to generate enough offense to respond.
At +800 odds, this bet is right in line with our 11% probability.
Philadelphia 1-0 vs. D.C. United (11% probability)
While a 1-1 draw technically carries the single highest score probability, the overall win probabilities lean toward Philadelphia claiming the victory in a tight, low-margin contest.
The data case: The model projects only a 24.7% chance of a draw and essentially a coin flip on the total goals at 51% over and 49% under, suggesting a cagey match where one goal could decide it.
Why the algorithm picked it: Philadelphia remain one of the Eastern Conference’s most structured teams after winning the 2025 Supporters’ Shield for recording the most points in the league, whereas D.C. United finished last and enter winless in the preseason. Even with roster turnover on both sides (Tai Baribo is now playing for the other side in D.C.), the Union’s defensive organization and home advantage point to a narrow victory rather than a high-scoring affair.
As another bet at 11% and +800, we are once again getting fair value on the books.
MORE: Philadelphia vs. D.C. United MLS predictions
San Diego FC 2-0 vs. Montreal (11% probability)
The model’s clearest projected winner of the MLS weekend is San Diego, with the league's newest club expected to handle business comfortably at home.
The data case: San Diego carry roughly a 72% win probability, and the 2-0 victory stands two percentage points higher than any other exact scoreline, a strong signal of both attacking success and defensive control.
Why the algorithm picked it: San Diego were one of the league’s breakout sides last season, finishing atop the Western Conference and reaching the brink of MLS Cup thanks to a high-powered attack. With playmaker Anders Dreyer creating chances and proven finisher Lewis Morgan added to the front line, the model expects consistent scoring output. Montréal, meanwhile, are coming off a 13th-place campaign and still project as a rebuilding side, making a controlled San Diego road win the most likely outcome.
Stop us if you've heard this - this bet is +800 odds, another fairly-priced prediction by the model.
MORE: Montreal vs. San Diego MLS predictions
How Dimers finds the edge
These probabilities aren't guesses; they are the result of comprehensive machine learning models.
By analyzing how a team performs in specific weather conditions, against specific tactical setups, and even individual player performance levels, the Dimers algorithm identifies value where the human eye sees a toss-up.
Less interested in these longshot plays? Each of these teams also gets a Dimers model edge to win their match, regardless of score.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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