NBA betting guide to the final games of the regular season - Friday, April 10

The 2025-26 NBA regular season wraps up this weekend, and if you're thinking about NBA betting over these final two days, the most important question when looking for NBA bets or player props may be what these teams are playing for.

With playoff seeding set for most of the league, motivation gaps between opponents will be large and could result in some of the most chaotic boxscores you'll see all year.

To ensure you're betting smarter in these final games, you can get a Dimers Pro 3-day free trial in the new Dimers App to get every betting insight from our advanced models over the course of the final weekend - learn more below!

Here's a breakdown of every team's situation as of Friday, April 10, and what it means for your wallet.

Teams with the most to play for

The Eastern Conference playoff/play-in bubble can burst any number of ways heading into the final 48 hours, but it could all be decided based on what happens on Friday night.

The Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks sit in pole position, with each team one win from clinching a playoff berth for either club. Both teams have home games on the slate Friday, with the Hawks at 72% to win according to the Dimers model, facing a Cavaliers team sitting Donovan Mitchell, but the Raptors have just a 30% probability of beating the Knicks, possibly setting Toronto up for a must-win game on Sunday, though it will be vs. the nearly last place Nets.

Our breakdown of the game lines in Knicks-Raptors form the Dimers App.

The Orlando Magic find themselves in a trickier spot. They need to win twice and the Raptors and Hawks to lose out as they hold no tiebreakers, in order to get out of the play-in. Orlando also needs to win to hold off Philadelphia or Charlotte passing them and dropping to the lower-seeded play-in game. They should cruise vs. the Bulls tonight based on our 86% probability, and our projection of 24 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists for Paolo Banchero from the NBA Projections Hub.

The Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets are the longest of long shots. Both need to sweep their remaining games and receive significant help from the Eastern Conference teams above them losing. The 76ers dropped a brutal road loss in Houston on Thursday, and although they won't have Joel Embiid as he recovers from appendicitis, they get two very winnable games vs. Indiana and Milwaukee.

Star Tyrese Maxey is one of our top overall projected players on Friday at 28.3 points and 7.0 assists - see the full 76ers projections here or in the Dimers App.

The Hornets face a Pistons team that has already clinched the top seed and is resting starters,  and may see the same on Sunday vs. the Knicks, which is about as favorable a spot as a bubble team can ask for.

Even if these teams cruise in these one-sided matchups, It will come down to the results for the Hawks, Raptors and Magic.

The Miami Heat are technically locked into the play-in, but their seeding isn't yet set in stone. Two wins combined with Hornets and 76ers losses would boost them to the higher play-in game, a meaningful difference in terms of survival odds. They take on the Washington Wizards on Friday with the highest win probability of the entire night at 90%, against an opponent with nothing whatsoever to play for, before a Hawks team whose motivation for Sunday will be determined tonight.

Bam Adebayo dropped 83 points vs. the Wizards earlier this season - our NBA Player Projections have him at 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists tonight in a dominant game.

Tops scorers in Heat-Wizards from the Dimers App.

From a betting perspective, these are the games with the most genuine electricity, but also the most landmines. Lines will be set with the implied motivation in mind, and oddsmakers are well aware of the stakes. The sharper play is looking at the opponent side of these matchups — more on that below.

Teams with little to play for

This is perhaps the most dangerous category for bettors, and it's the one most casual players overlook. Not to mention, every team will care about their seeding differently based on potential opponents, coaching philosophy, and other factors.

The New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers are all locked into the playoffs in the East, with seeding being the only variable. Finishing a game or two higher in the standings is worth something, but not always enough to risk key players in a mostly meaningless late-season game.

Top-projected players like Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum and James Harden may have lines that look appealing, but should be approached with caution.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Brooklyn Nets need to lose to guarantee their top 3 lottery spot and best shot at the top overall pick in the NBA Draft, projected for a 78% chance to do so tonight vs. the Bucks.

In the West, the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets are in a similar boat. Denver is locked into a playoff seed and facing the Thunder on Friday in what looks likea  David vs. Goliath matchup of projected lineups and an 11.5-point spread.

The Lakers are likely without Luka Doncic for the playoffs, given their virtually 0% NBA Finals probability from the Dimers model, but they've now likely settled into their bracket spot.

Clinched and eliminated teams

The following teams have locked in their playoff or play-in seed in either conference:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (1)
• Detroit Pistons (1)
• San Antonio Spurs (2)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (6)
• Phoenix Suns (play-in)
• LA Clippers (play-in)
• Portland Trail Blazers (play-in)
• Golden State Warriors (play-in)

These teams have all been eliminated and have nothing to play for besides draft positioning:

• Washington Wizards
• Indiana Pacers
• Sacramento Kings
• Utah Jazz
• Chicago Bulls
• Milwaukee Bucks
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Memphis Grizzlies
• Dallas Mavericks

Betting Advice: How to Approach the Final Weekend

When a team with everything to play for faces a team with nothing to play for, the odds, look for those matchups specifically.

The Charlotte–Detroit game on Friday is a textbook example. The Hornets need every win they can get; the Pistons' priority is keeping their stars healthy, especially with Cade Cunningham recently back from injury. Our model reveals multiple game line edges, including on Charlotte, and the trio of LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel all project for at least 3.3 threes.

Our three-point projections for the Hornets, as seen in the Dimers App.

Conversely, be extremely wary of laying points with powerhouses like Oklahoma City or San Antonio when they have no incentive to push it.

Rest situations are going to matter enormously in these final games, and a key player being listed as a late scratch for "rest" can swing a spread significantly. It's great to capitalize on early value, but having all the information is just as useful.

Finally, don't over-rely on recent form. A team like the Hawks losing in Cleveland on Wednesday doesn't necessarily reflect tonight's matchup in which they are strong favorites and won't be facing Donovan Mitchell, who scored 31 points in that game.

The final two days of the regular season are still worth a look from a betting standpoint, but they are among the trickiest betting environments of the entire calendar year.

Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2025-26 season

• NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
• Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.