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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, January 16, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/16.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, January 16, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Julius Randle projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Randle, Pascal Siakam and Donovan Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.5% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.0% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.4% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 14.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.6% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.6% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 13.1% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 12.7% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 11.9% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.8% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.6% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.8% | +750 | 13.6% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.8% | +600 | 15.0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 0.3% | +650 | 13.7% |
| Gradey Dick | Raptors | 0.1% | +1000 | 9.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, January 16, 2026, Julius Randle, Pascal Siakam and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Tyrese Maxey shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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