...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, February 20, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, February 20, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 14.0% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 13.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.9% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.8% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 13.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 12.9% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 12.3% |
| Saddiq Bey | Pelicans | 12.2% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 5.6% | +1100 | 13.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.1% | +650 | 17.4% |
| Julian Strawther | Nuggets | 2.3% | +1100 | 10.7% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.4% | +850 | 12.0% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 0.5% | +750 | 12.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, February 20, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
Advertiser disclosure