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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, February 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, February 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.5% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 15.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.5% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 13.4% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.1% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.6% |
| Khris Middleton | Mavericks | 12.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.0% |
| Julian Strawther | Nuggets | 11.7% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.0% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 10.6% |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 10.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 5.0% | +900 | 15.0% |
| Julian Strawther | Nuggets | 4.0% | +1200 | 11.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 2.1% | +850 | 12.7% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 0.9% | +700 | 13.4% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 0.9% | +1100 | 9.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.8% | +500 | 17.5% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 0.8% | +600 | 15.1% |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 0.6% | +950 | 10.1% |
| Khris Middleton | Mavericks | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, February 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, with Duren shaping as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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