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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 6, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 6, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Cooper Flagg and Luka Doncic lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 19.2% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 17.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.6% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.6% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 14.3% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.1% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 14.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.0% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.5% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.3% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.0% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 3.7% | +650 | 17.0% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 2.8% | +750 | 14.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Jaxson Hayes | Lakers | 1.3% | +800 | 12.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 6, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Cooper Flagg and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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