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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 20, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 20, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Ty Jerome and Nikola Jokic lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.7% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 14.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.6% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.1% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.0% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.7% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.5% |
| Nolan Traore | Nets | 12.3% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.1% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.4% | +600 | 17.7% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.8% | +900 | 12.8% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.4% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.3% | +950 | 10.8% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.1% | +650 | 14.4% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.9% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| Taylor Hendricks | Grizzlies | 0.8% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 0.6% | +950 | 10.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 20, 2026, Jalen Duren, Ty Jerome and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Duren shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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