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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Ace Bailey lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.2% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.8% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 16.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.5% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 14.4% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.2% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.0% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 12.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 4.7% | +1100 | 13.0% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.9% | +1000 | 13.0% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 3.7% | +700 | 16.2% |
| Cody Williams | Jazz | 3.3% | +1100 | 11.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 2.7% | +900 | 12.7% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 2.1% | +700 | 14.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.6% | +600 | 15.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 1.5% | +600 | 15.8% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Ace Bailey lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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