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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, April 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, April 10, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Victor Wembanyama lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 17.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.7% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.5% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 15.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 15.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.2% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 14.2% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.8% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.6% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.1% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 12.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 2.1% | +850 | 12.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.0% | +650 | 15.3% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 1.9% | +750 | 13.6% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 1.7% | +700 | 14.2% |
| Jared McCain | Thunder | 1.3% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Aaron Wiggins | Thunder | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.1% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, April 10, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Victor Wembanyama lead our first basket projections, while Anthony Edwards shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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