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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Play-In Tournament, Friday, April 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/17.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, April 17, 2026—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Franz Wagner and LaMelo Ball lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (Play-In Tournament, Friday, April 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.4% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.7% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.3% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 11.8% |
| Miles Bridges | Hornets | 11.7% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 11.4% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 10.8% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 10.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 10.4% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 9.7% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 9.7% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 8.3% |
| Kon Knueppel | Hornets | 7.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 3.0% | +1400 | 9.7% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Play-In Tourmanent action on Friday, April 17, 2026, Stephen Curry, Franz Wagner and LaMelo Ball lead our first basket projections, while Gui Santos shapes as the strongest value play at +1400. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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