...
...
Read Article
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Friday, May 1, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/1.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 1, 2026—are live with the Magic's Paolo Banchero projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Banchero, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.5% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.3% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.2% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.6% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 11.2% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 11.0% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 11.0% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.0% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 10.6% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 10.2% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 10.1% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 10.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 3.0% | +1700 | 8.6% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.3% | +900 | 12.3% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.7% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 0.5% | +1200 | 8.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.4% | +850 | 11.0% |
| Max Strus | Cavaliers | 0.2% | +1400 | 6.9% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 0.1% | +850 | 10.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/1.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onFriday, May 1, 2026, Paolo Banchero, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, while Tari Eason shapes as the strongest value play at +1700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
Advertiser disclosure