Jun 16, 2026
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 6 of 2026 Finals
Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Friday, May 1, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/1.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 1, 2026—are live with the Raptors' RJ Barrett projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Barrett, Paolo Banchero and Donovan Mitchell lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 13.7% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.5% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.3% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.1% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 11.8% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.6% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 11.2% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 11.0% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 11.0% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 10.2% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 10.1% |
| Jamal Cain | Magic | 9.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tari Eason | Rockets | 2.7% | +1600 | 8.6% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 1.8% | +900 | 11.8% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 1.2% | +900 | 11.2% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.1% | +1300 | 8.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Jamal Cain | Magic | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 0.7% | +1000 | 9.8% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 0.4% | +650 | 13.7% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 0.4% | +650 | 13.7% |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/1.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onFriday, May 1, 2026, RJ Barrett, Paolo Banchero and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Tari Eason shapes as the strongest value play at +1600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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