May 15, 2026
NBA Playoffs player props today: Friday's best props include Jalen Duren [5/15/2026]
Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Friday, May 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 15, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.8% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.4% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 13.2% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 11.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 11.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.9% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 10.3% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 9.9% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 9.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 9.6% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 8.1% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 3.7% | +950 | 13.2% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 0.9% | +1300 | 8.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 0.5% | +650 | 13.8% |
| Dean Wade | Cavaliers | 0.3% | +1900 | 5.3% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 0.0% | +1000 | 9.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onFriday, May 15, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham lead our first basket projections, while Tobias Harris shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media brands.
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