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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, February 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, February 9, 2026—are live with the 76ers' Joel Embiid projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.4% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 14.1% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.2% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.1% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.0% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 12.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.7% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 12.6% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.4% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 3.6% | +1000 | 12.7% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 2.1% | +850 | 12.6% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 2.0% | +1000 | 11.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 0.7% | +750 | 12.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, February 9, 2026, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and Donovan Mitchell lead our first basket projections, while Ryan Rollins shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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