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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 9, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Keyonte George and Kawhi Leonard lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.5% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 16.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.4% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 13.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.0% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 12.8% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.7% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 12.5% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 12.4% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.3% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 11.7% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 11.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 2.3% | +1100 | 10.6% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 2.1% | +550 | 17.5% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 1.9% | +650 | 15.2% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 1.9% | +600 | 16.1% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 1.2% | +750 | 13.0% |
| Adem Bona | 76ers | 0.9% | +1000 | 10.0% |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | 0.9% | +1200 | 8.6% |
| Sam Merrill | Cavaliers | 0.2% | +1100 | 8.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 9, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Keyonte George and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, while Gui Santos shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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