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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 16, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/16.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 16, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Cooper Flagg and Darius Garland lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.1% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.0% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 14.6% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.6% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.5% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 13.5% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.2% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.2% |
| Trae Young | Wizards | 13.1% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.1% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.0% |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 12.9% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 12.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.5% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 16, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | Wizards | 4.0% | +1000 | 13.1% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 2.9% | +1200 | 10.6% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 2.1% | +1100 | 10.4% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.0% | +850 | 12.6% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.6% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.3% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 1.2% | +650 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/16.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 16, 2026, Luka Doncic, Cooper Flagg and Darius Garland lead our first basket projections, while Trae Young shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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