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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, March 23, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, March 23, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.7% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.4% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 16.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.5% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 15.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.2% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 14.0% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 13.9% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.7% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 13.6% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.5% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 13.1% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 23, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 6.0% | +1300 | 13.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 5.8% | +950 | 15.3% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 4.0% | +950 | 13.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.4% | +600 | 17.7% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.9% | +650 | 16.3% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 2.9% | +800 | 14.0% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 2.3% | +1000 | 11.4% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 2.0% | +950 | 11.5% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.9% | +750 | 13.7% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 1.9% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 1.1% | +800 | 12.3% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, March 23, 2026, Jalen Duren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Kyle Kuzma shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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