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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, April 6, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, April 6, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.0% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 15.3% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 14.7% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 14.6% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.8% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 12.5% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 12.3% |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 12.3% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 12.2% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 11.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 11.2% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 11.1% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 10.7% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 10.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 2.8% | +950 | 12.3% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 2.3% | +1300 | 9.4% |
| Kevin Huerter | Pistons | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Toumani Camara | Trail Blazers | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.4% | +600 | 14.7% |
| Daniss Jenkins | Pistons | 0.4% | +950 | 9.9% |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | 0.0% | +1000 | 9.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, April 6, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Olivier-Maxence Prosper shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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