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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Monday, April 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, April 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.0% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.3% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.3% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 11.9% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 11.6% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 11.4% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 11.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 10.5% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 10.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 2.6% | +1500 | 8.8% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 2.4% | +750 | 14.1% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 1.5% | +850 | 12.1% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 0.5% | +1300 | 7.6% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 0.4% | +1200 | 8.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onMonday, April 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Duncan Robinson shapes as the strongest value play at +1500. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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