Jun 16, 2026
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 6 of 2026 Finals
Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Monday, May 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, May 4, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.6% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.0% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.0% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.0% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 10.8% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 10.3% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 9.3% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 9.1% |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 8.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 7.9% |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 7.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.9% | +800 | 13.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onMonday, May 4, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid lead our first basket projections, while Tyrese Maxey shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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