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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Monday, May 4, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/4.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, May 4, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.6% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.4% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.0% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.8% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.0% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 10.8% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 10.3% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 9.3% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 9.1% |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 8.2% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 7.9% |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 7.1% |
| Mike Conley | Timberwolves | 7.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 4, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.2% | +750 | 13.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/4.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onMonday, May 4, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Brunson and Joel Embiid lead our first basket projections, while Tyrese Maxey shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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