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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, January 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/17.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, January 17, 2026—are live with the Lakers' LeBron James projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
James, Victor Wembanyama and Norman Powell lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | Lakers | 18.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.6% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 15.5% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 15.4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.3% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 14.3% |
| Jay Huff | Pacers | 14.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.5% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.3% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 12.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 5.2% | +1000 | 14.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 3.7% | +750 | 15.5% |
| Justin Champagnie | Wizards | 2.5% | +1100 | 10.8% |
| Miles McBride | Knicks | 2.4% | +1000 | 11.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.1% | +750 | 13.8% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 1.7% | +850 | 12.3% |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +600 | 15.4% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 1.1% | +950 | 10.6% |
| Anfernee Simons | Celtics | 0.8% | +850 | 11.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 0.4% | +460 | 18.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, January 17, 2026, LeBron James, Victor Wembanyama and Norman Powell lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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