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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, February 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, February 7, 2026—are live with the Nuggets' Nikola Jokic projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Jokic, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 17.2% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 16.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.7% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.9% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.9% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 14.4% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 13.9% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 13.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.6% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.5% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 13.3% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.8% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 12.5% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 12.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 5.5% | +1100 | 13.9% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 4.4% | +900 | 14.4% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 2.3% | +650 | 15.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 0.4% | +800 | 11.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, February 7, 2026, Nikola Jokic, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead our first basket projections, while Anfernee Simons shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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