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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 14, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 14, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 13.5% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.3% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 12.7% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 12.6% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 12.4% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 12.3% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 12.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 14, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 2.4% | +800 | 13.5% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 2.1% | +1100 | 10.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 1.3% | +650 | 14.7% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 1.1% | +800 | 12.2% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.8% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 0.5% | +850 | 11.0% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 14, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Kyle Kuzma shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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