...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 28, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/28.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 28, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Julius Randle projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Randle, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 18.5% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 15.3% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.2% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.8% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 13.8% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.7% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.6% |
| Rudy Gobert | Timberwolves | 12.5% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 12.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 12.3% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.7% | +800 | 13.8% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.0% | +750 | 13.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.4% | +600 | 15.7% |
| Cody Williams | Jazz | 0.9% | +1100 | 9.3% |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | 0.6% | +1100 | 8.9% |
| Devin Carter | Kings | 0.3% | +1000 | 9.3% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 0.2% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 28, 2026, Julius Randle, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure