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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Saturday, May 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, May 9, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron James lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.4% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.7% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.3% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.6% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 10.8% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 10.0% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 9.9% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 9.9% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 9.3% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.3% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 9.0% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.1% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | Thunder | 8.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 4.3% | +1000 | 13.4% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 2.2% | +1600 | 8.1% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 0.1% | +1300 | 7.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSaturday, May 9, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, while Tobias Harris shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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