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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 11, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 11, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray and Jalen Brunson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.6% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 16.9% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 16.4% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 15.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.5% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.6% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.5% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 14.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 14.0% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.8% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.6% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 13.2% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 11, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 3.0% | +1100 | 11.3% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 2.8% | +460 | 20.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.5% | +850 | 12.0% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 1.4% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Raptors | 1.4% | +950 | 10.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 1.3% | +700 | 13.8% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.1% | +900 | 11.1% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 1.0% | +550 | 16.4% |
| Andrew Wiggins | Heat | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 0.3% | +650 | 13.6% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 11, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jamal Murray and Jalen Brunson lead our first basket projections, while Tre Johnson shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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