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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 18, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/18.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 18, 2026—are live with the Rockets' Kevin Durant projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Durant, Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 15.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.1% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.5% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.0% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 14.0% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 14.0% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 12.7% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 11.9% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 11.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.8% |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/18.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 18, 2026, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic and Zion Williamson lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Ingram shapes as the strongest value play at +700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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