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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, February 1, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/1.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, February 1, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 17.5% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 16.6% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.1% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 15.4% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.0% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 14.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.4% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 12.9% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 12.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.8% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 12.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 1, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.3% | +750 | 16.1% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 3.7% | +750 | 15.4% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 3.0% | +1000 | 12.1% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 2.1% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 1.6% | +800 | 12.7% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 1.0% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.8% | +500 | 17.5% |
| Jaylon Tyson | Cavaliers | 0.6% | +800 | 11.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/1.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, February 1, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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