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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 15, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Jalen Duren and Cooper Flagg lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 15.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.5% |
| T.J. McConnell | Pacers | 15.2% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.9% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.1% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 12.8% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 12.8% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 12.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 12.2% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 12.1% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 12.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 5.9% | +950 | 15.5% |
| T.J. McConnell | Pacers | 3.4% | +750 | 15.2% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 3.1% | +700 | 15.6% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 3.0% | +1000 | 12.1% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 1.7% | +800 | 12.8% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 1.6% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 1.4% | +950 | 10.9% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +750 | 12.9% |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.3% | +750 | 12.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 15, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Duren and Cooper Flagg lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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