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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 22, 2026—are live with the Suns' Devin Booker projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Booker, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | Suns | 15.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.3% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 13.2% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.1% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 13.0% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 13.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 12.6% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 12.6% |
| Nolan Traore | Nets | 12.4% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 12.2% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 3.7% | +1200 | 11.4% |
| Donovan Clingan | Trail Blazers | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 2.9% | +900 | 12.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 2.6% | +900 | 12.6% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 1.5% | +1100 | 9.8% |
| Christian Braun | Nuggets | 1.2% | +1300 | 8.4% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 1.1% | +600 | 15.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 0.9% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.8% | +750 | 12.6% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.6% | +950 | 10.1% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 0.4% | +700 | 12.9% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.2% | +1100 | 8.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 22, 2026, Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, while Tristan Vukcevic shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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