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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, March 29, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/29.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, March 29, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Pascal Siakam projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tristan Vukcevic lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 29, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 17.5% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.9% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 14.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 14.5% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.3% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 14.0% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.9% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 13.8% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.1% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 13.0% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 13.0% |
| Dejounte Murray | Pelicans | 12.9% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 12.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 29, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 3.2% | +600 | 17.5% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 2.7% | +800 | 13.8% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 2.0% | +800 | 13.1% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 1.7% | +850 | 12.2% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.5% | +550 | 15.9% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.1% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/29.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, March 29, 2026, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tristan Vukcevic lead our first basket projections, with Siakam shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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