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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, April 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, April 5, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Julius Randle lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.6% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 14.6% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 14.1% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.0% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.7% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.5% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.3% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 12.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 12.7% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 2.5% | +850 | 13.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.2% | +650 | 15.6% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Micah Potter | Pacers | 1.6% | +900 | 11.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.3% | +750 | 13.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.8% | +800 | 11.9% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, April 5, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard and Julius Randle lead our first basket projections, while Daniel Gafford shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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