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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, April 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, April 5, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kawhi Leonard lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.6% |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 16.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.6% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 15.5% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 14.6% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.5% |
| Obi Toppin | Pacers | 14.4% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 14.1% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 14.0% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.9% |
| Will Riley | Wizards | 13.8% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 13.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 13.7% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.7% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 5.0% | +850 | 15.5% |
| Obi Toppin | Pacers | 4.4% | +900 | 14.4% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 3.9% | +900 | 13.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 2.7% | +950 | 12.2% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 2.5% | +850 | 13.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.2% | +650 | 15.6% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.2% | +750 | 14.0% |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 2.1% | +600 | 16.4% |
| Precious Achiuwa | Kings | 1.9% | +950 | 11.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.3% | +750 | 13.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 0.6% | +800 | 11.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, April 5, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, while Collin Sexton shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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