Jun 16, 2026
NBA first basket picks and predictions for Game 6 of 2026 Finals
Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, May 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 3, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 13.6% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 13.2% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.0% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 10.5% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.6% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 9.3% |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | Raptors | 7.0% |
| Max Strus | Cavaliers | 6.0% |
| Jamal Shead | Raptors | 5.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.9% | +750 | 13.7% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 0.9% | +950 | 10.5% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSunday, May 3, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, RJ Barrett and Scottie Barnes lead our first basket projections, with Barrett shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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