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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, May 3, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/3.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 3, 2026—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.1% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 13.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.4% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 12.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.8% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 11.7% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 11.5% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.0% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.6% |
| Jamal Cain | Magic | 9.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 9.5% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 9.3% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 9.3% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 8.5% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 3, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.3% | +1300 | 8.4% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 1.2% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 1.0% | +700 | 13.5% |
| Jamal Cain | Magic | 0.5% | +1000 | 9.6% |
| Jakob Poeltl | Raptors | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/3.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onSunday, May 3, 2026, Donovan Mitchell, Paolo Banchero and Cade Cunningham lead our first basket projections, while Duncan Robinson shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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