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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, December 14, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/14.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, December 14, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 14, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.2% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.3% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.1% |
| Bones Hyland | Timberwolves | 13.0% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 12.4% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 12.2% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 11.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 11.5% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 11.4% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 11.2% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 11.0% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 10.8% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 10.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 14, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bones Hyland | Timberwolves | 3.9% | +1000 | 13.0% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 2.6% | +800 | 13.8% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 0.9% | +850 | 11.4% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 0.6% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 0.2% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/14.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, December 14, 2025, Stephen Curry, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Bones Hyland shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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