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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, January 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/15.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, January 15, 2026—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also feature tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 20.2% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.2% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 15.5% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.9% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.9% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 14.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.9% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.4% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.2% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.1% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.0% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Hardy | Mavericks | 3.3% | +1100 | 11.7% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.1% | +950 | 11.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 2.1% | +750 | 13.9% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.6% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 0.6% | +600 | 14.8% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, January 15, 2026, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Jaden Hardy shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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