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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, January 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, January 22, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Norman Powell and Anthony Edwards lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.5% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 15.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.5% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.4% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.0% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 13.9% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.8% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 13.5% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 13.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 4.1% | +1000 | 13.2% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.8% | +700 | 14.3% |
| John Collins | Clippers | 1.7% | +1000 | 10.8% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.5% | +950 | 11.0% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 1.5% | +700 | 14.0% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 1.0% | +700 | 13.5% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 0.8% | +850 | 11.3% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.3% | +900 | 10.3% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 0.3% | +800 | 11.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/22.
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Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, January 22, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Norman Powell and Anthony Edwards lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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