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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 5, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.4% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 15.3% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 14.4% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 13.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.7% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 13.5% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.2% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.8% |
| Jalen Smith | Bulls | 12.8% |
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 12.6% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 12.3% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 12.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Moody | Warriors | 3.5% | +1000 | 12.6% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.1% | +750 | 13.9% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 2.0% | +650 | 15.3% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 1.8% | +1000 | 10.9% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 1.6% | +900 | 11.6% |
| Zaccharie Risacher | Hawks | 1.2% | +1000 | 10.3% |
| Jalen Smith | Bulls | 1.0% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Kyshawn George | Wizards | 0.5% | +800 | 11.6% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 0.2% | +850 | 10.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.1% | +750 | 11.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.1% | +600 | 14.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 5, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Cooper Flagg and Joel Embiid lead our first basket projections, while Moses Moody shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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