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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 19, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/19.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 19, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 18.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 16.1% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.8% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.5% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 14.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 14.2% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.2% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.1% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 12.8% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.7% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 12.6% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 2.8% | +650 | 16.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 2.2% | +550 | 17.6% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 1.1% | +650 | 14.5% |
| De'Anthony Melton | Warriors | 1.1% | +850 | 11.6% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| Pat Spencer | Warriors | 0.9% | +950 | 10.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.7% | +700 | 13.2% |
| Anfernee Simons | Bulls | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 0.6% | +750 | 12.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/19.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 19, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Jokic shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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