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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 26, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 26, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Edwards, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 15.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.9% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.4% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.4% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.6% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 13.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 13.0% |
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 13.0% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.7% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 12.5% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 12.4% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 26, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Vukcevic | Wizards | 3.4% | +950 | 13.0% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 2.5% | +800 | 13.6% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 2.2% | +800 | 13.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.5% | +750 | 13.2% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 1.1% | +900 | 11.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 0.4% | +600 | 14.6% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 0.1% | +600 | 14.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/26.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 26, 2026, Anthony Edwards, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Tristan Vukcevic shapes as the strongest value play at +950. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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