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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, March 19, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/19.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, March 19, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Jalen Duren and Devin Booker lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 18.0% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.2% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 15.6% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.3% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.7% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.6% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 14.0% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.6% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.6% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.3% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 13.2% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 13.1% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.1% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 12.9% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 19, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 4.6% | +1100 | 12.9% |
| Justin Edwards | 76ers | 3.1% | +1000 | 12.2% |
| Justin Champagnie | Wizards | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 1.6% | +850 | 12.1% |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | Jazz | 1.5% | +900 | 11.5% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.0% | +850 | 11.5% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.6% | +700 | 13.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/19.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, March 19, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Duren and Devin Booker lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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