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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, April 2, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/2.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, April 2, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 17.8% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.1% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 14.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 14.0% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.6% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.4% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.3% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.3% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 13.0% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 12.9% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 12.8% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.6% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 2, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 2.9% | +800 | 14.0% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 1.7% | +750 | 13.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 1.1% | +500 | 17.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.9% | +600 | 15.1% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 0.7% | +550 | 16.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/2.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, April 2, 2026, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Ayo Dosunmu shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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