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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, April 9, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/9.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, April 9, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jayson Tatum projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Tatum, Tre Jones and LeBron James lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 14.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.8% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Neemias Queta | Celtics | 12.7% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.7% |
| Will Riley | Wizards | 12.6% |
| Leonard Miller | Bulls | 12.1% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 12.1% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 12.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.0% |
| Collin Sexton | Bulls | 12.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.9% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 9, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 4.3% | +1300 | 11.5% |
| Leonard Miller | Bulls | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.1% | +750 | 13.8% |
| Pat Spencer | Warriors | 1.6% | +1000 | 10.7% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.3% | +900 | 11.3% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 1.3% | +650 | 14.6% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 1.1% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Neemias Queta | Celtics | 1.0% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 0.8% | +950 | 10.3% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.8% | +800 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/9.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, April 9, 2026, Jayson Tatum, Tre Jones and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, while Gui Santos shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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